Monthly Indicators	Median Sales Prices	Notes
Annual Forecast	Appreciation	New Construction/Conversions
Annual Review	Buildings	Links
Recent Sales	Census Areas

Monthly Indicators

(Based on Statistics Compiled on May 1, 2008, Using the Multiple Listing Service)

Buyer/Seller Market: +3.4 in favor of buyer (9.4-month supply)

Median Sales Price: $320,000, Average Days on Market: 123

Year over year:  Compared to April 2007, unit closings were down 35%, indicating a better market for condo buyers than a year ago. However, median sales price was up 10% compared to April 2007.

Month over month: Compared to March 2008, April sales (closings) were down 10%, median sales price was up only 3%, and market time was down 10% compared to the previous month.

For details, see Recent Sales charts below

Annual Forecast

NAR Forecast for Overall Housing Sales (January 2008)

Existing Home Sales: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts sales of existing homes in 2008 to increase 0.9 percent to 5.7 million. That compares to a projected 13 percent decrease in sales from 2006 to 2007. NAR also predicts 5.9 million home sales in 2009. (It should be noted that NAR did not anticipate 2007's severe housing market downturn, having over-projected sales in 2007 by 760,000, and that many national economists are predicting far lower home sales in 2008.)
Existing Home Prices: NAR projects that the median sales price of existing homes in 2007 dropped 1.9 percent, to $217,600, the first annual drop since NAR began tracking the data. NAR predicts that the median sales price of existing homes will remain flat, at $217,600, in 2008, before rising to $224,400 in 2009.
New Home Sales: NAR also predicts that new home sales will fall 13.4 percent in 2008, to 669,000, then rebound to 730,000 in 2009.
New Home Prices: NAR predicts that median sales prices of new homes in 2008 will remain flat at $242,000, before rising to $256,500 in 2009.

NAHB Forecast for Housing Starts
In late December 2007, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) predicted that new homes sales in 2008 will be 741,000, lower than in 2007 and much lower than the 1.2 million in 2005. For Chicago, NAHB projected 29,400 housing starts for 2007, down from 51,000 in 2005. For 2008, NAHB predicts 26,800 housing starts, rising to 31,200 in 2009.

Rubloff Forecast for Chicago Condo Market
In January, Jim Kinney, president of Rubloff, one of the city's top condo brokers, predicted that sales of condo units will increase 1% in 2008 and that appreciation (increase in median sales price) will be 5%.

MBA Forecast for National Home Sales

Existing Home Sales: In January, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predicted that sales of existing (previously owned) homes in the U.S. will fall 13% in 2008, then increase in 2009.
New Home Sales: MBA predicted that sales of new homes will tumble 15% in 2008, before rising 7% in '09.

ARC Forecast for Downtown Chicago Condo Market
In January, Appraisal Research Counselors (ARC), a Chicago-based appraisal firm that tracks new developments, reported that the supply of unsold new units in "downtown" Chicago (the area from Cermak to North Avenue, between Lake Michigan and I-94) is 50% higher than it was a year ago. Of the 6,300 of those units scheduled for completion in 2008, 1,300 (roughly 20%) remain unsold. Through the third quarter of 2007, the most recent figures available, sales of new downtown condos fell 35%.

Annual Review

(Based on 2007 Sales on the MLS)

Annual Sales Drop 7%, to 18,000 Units, Valued at $6.3 Billion; 7% Appreciation; Median Sales Price Increases to $294 Per Square Foot

News release summarizing 2007 sales

Chicago is condos. Based on number of units, Chicago is the nation’s third-largest condo market (and third largest in population). In the city, condo sales make up 64% of all residential sales, compared to 58% in 2006. Their market share has grown steadily in recent years. There are 213,000 condo units (metro area) in an estimated 10,000+ buildings (city), with several thousand units added annually. As many as 500,000 (metro) of Chicago’s three million residents, 16% (metro) of the population, call condos home. That compares to __% who live in apartments. Roughly 20% of condo units are rented out by their owners. Some condos prohibit rentals.

Condos create much of the city’s skyline. Their prominence is especially evident along prestigious North Lake Shore Drive, the largest concentration of units. Most high-rises, and most luxury buildings, are located in three census areas along Lake Michigan: Near North, Lake View and Lincoln Park. The most desirable buildings offer magnificent views of Lake Michigan, are on or near Michigan Avenue or overlook Millennium Park.

Recent years have seen rapid growth along the Chicago River, and west and south of downtown. Lofts, created by rehabbing vacated warehouses, are increasingly popular for their high ceilings and brick walls. Vintage buildings offer Old World charm and elegance. Conversions, of apartment buildings to condos, are occurring at a pace not seen since the 1980s and are generally 20% less expensive than new-construction units. More than a dozen condo hotels, the newest trend, offer room service to residents and rental income to owners. Thousands of two-flat condos are scattered throughout the city. Town houses can be either condos or homeowner associations. Co-ops, not listed in our database, are less than 5% of the market. Most high-rise co-ops are at the high end, especially on East Lake Shore Drive, but the first co-ops were two- and four-flats, and are still occupied throughout the city. (In the 14-county metro area, condos make up 26% of new building permits, but are not yet part of our database.)

Each year in the city, about 20,000 condo units turn over. That is roughly _% of the total inventory and 2% of the 900,000 condos & co-ops bought and sold across America. The city’s combined annual sales volume is $6 billion. More than 10,000 units are on the market (“active”) at any given time. In 2007, prices ranged from $10,000 for a one-bedroom in East Garfield Park (on the city's west side) to $6.3 million for a 5,000-square-foot, 3-bedroom condo in the Palmolive Building on Michigan Avenue. The citywide median sales price in 2007 was $295,400, $294 per square foot. That is less than one-third the cost PSF in New York City. The ultra luxury end of the market now brings in excess of $1,000 per square foot. Annual appreciation (i.e., increase in median sales price) was 6.3% in 2007, compared to 0.3% in 2006. Houses in the city appreciated at less than 1%. Unit sales were down 7% in 2007, to 18,184 units, but sales volume was up 1%, to $6.4 billion. This compared to a drop in sales of houses in the city of 27%. Based on unit sales, 2007 was the fourth-highest year ever.

Recent Sales (2008 & 2007)

Condo Market Indicators

Year Over Year (April 2008 – April 2007)

Month Over Month (April 2008 – March 2008)

Statistics above based on units closed or listed on the Multiple Listing Service. MLS figures do not include for-sale-by-owner units (FSBOs), typically less than ten percent of all sales.

Based on sales of 18,000 units in 2007. Nationally, inventory, or supply, of more than six months generally indicates a buyer’s market.

Total annual condo sales (2007 MLS):  18,120 units for $6.3 billion

Condo sales as percentage of all residential sales in Chicago: 64 vs. 45 in 2000 (Up 42% in 7 years)

Inventory of unsold units (new construction and conversion):To come

Units coming onto market compared to number of units sold in recent years: About equal (ARC)

Inventory of active (resale) units: Current actives divided by 2007 average monthly closed units (1,496) indicates a six-month supply; any supply over six months is generally considered a buyer’s market

2007 Median Sales Prices (MLS)

Median Sales Price: $295,400; Median Size: 1,244 square feet; Median price/square foot: $294. Only about half of the MLS listings show square footage, so the average Cost Per Sq Ft in the table below is based on only half the closings and is not calculated by dividing the Median Price by the Median Square Feet.

Appreciation

(Based on increase in 2007 and earlier median sales price, MLS)

1-year: 6.3% vs. 0.4% in 2006; 3-year: 14%; 5-year: _%; 10-year: _%

2005 Nationwide: _%

2005: New York: __%. Los Angeles: __%. Washington, D.C. area: _%. Miami: _%. San Francisco: _%. Boston: _%, Houston: __%. (See HUD report for Top 10)

Buildings

(Based on the 10,000 buildings in our database, which includes virtually all properties with 25+ units, virtually all new construction and conversions, plus thousands of smaller buildings, including hundreds of two- to six-flats)

Total buildings: 4,211

500+ units: 30 (1%);
499-100 units: 413 (10%);
99-26 units: 883 (20%);
25-7 units: 1,117 (25%);
6-2 units (flats): 1,768 (42%)

New Construction: 285 (7%); Conversion: 132 (3%); Re-Sales: 3,794 (90%)

Census Areas (77)

(Based on 2007 MLS statistics and 2000 Census Data)

Most Condo Units Sold:
1. 8008, Near North Side (2,805 units)
2. 8006, Lakeview (2,127)
3. 8024, West Town (1,355)
4. 8007, Lincoln Park (1,202)
5. 8028, Near West Side (1,181)
6. 8032, Loop (987)
7. 8003, Uptown (933)
8. 8033, Near South Side (862)
9. 8077, Edgewater (825)
10. 8001, Rogers Park (643)

Highest Median Sales Price:
Loop ($410,000),
Near North Side ($387,000),
Lincoln Park ($384,950)

Lowest Median Sales Price (among areas with 10+ sales):
West Lawn ($108,000),
Ashburn ($111,000),
Chatham ($119,000)

Highest Median Income (2000 census data):
Lincoln Park ($68,613),
Forest Glen ($68,269),
Beverly ($66,823)

2007 Sales by Census Area as Reported by Chicago Association of Realtors from MLS
(These statistics vary somewhat from those taken directly from the MLS)

Citywide

Growth in Units Sold: Five areas with 100+ units sold saw an increase of units sold of 10% or more:

Increase in Median Sales Price Five areas with 50+ units sold saw an increase in median sales price in excess of 10%:

Decrease in Median Sales Price Four areas with 50+ units sold, saw a decrease in median sales price of greater than 5%:

Notes (Explanations & Sources)

New Construction/Conversions

(From quarterly Appraisal Research Counselors report)

Links

CityofChicago.org
ChicagoTribune.com
Chicago Police Department

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